The New Madrid Seismic Zone Earthquake – Joint State of Missouri & Region VII Response Operations Plan was created in January 2014. Being eight years old, I still think it gives us an idea of what’ll happen if a 7.7 magnitude earthquake happens in the New Madrid seismic zone.
This response plan is very detailed at 825 pages. I’ll go through it and highlight areas I think are interesting.
The Operations Plan (OPLAN) focuses on these 47 Missouri counties and the City of St Louis. These were determined to be significantly impacted by a 7.7 magnitude earthquake and would incur the most severe damage, loss of operational capability, and direct economic losses throughout the region.
- Adair
- Audrain
- Bollinger
- Boone
- Butler
- Callaway
- Cape Girardeau
- Carter
- Chariton
- Clark
- Cole
- Dunklin
- Howard
- Iron
- Jefferson
- Knox
- Lewis
- Lincoln
- Macon
- Madison
- Marion
- Mississippi
- Monroe
- Montgomery
- New Madrid
- Oregon
- Osage
- Pemiscot
- Perry
- Pike
- Putnam
- Ralls
- Randolph
- Reynolds
- Ripley
- Schuyler
- Scotland
- Scott
- Shelby
- St. Charles
- St. Francois
- St. Louis
- Ste. Genevieve
- Stoddard
- Warren
- Washington
- Wayne
- City of St. Louis
The OPLAN scenario is a 7.7 magnitude earthquake on February 2nd at 7 am. 22 Missouri counties extending from the boot-heal to St Louis are estimated to incur the most severe damage. Catastrophic damage is expected in 16 Missouri counties and the urban areas of Cape Girardeau, Poplar Bluff, Sikeston, and St. Louis.
By day three, 667,302 gallons of drinking water and 1,799,408 meals would be needed. 87,000 damaged buildings and 44,000 destroyed, with 302,173 households without power. As many as 129,000 pets will need to be rescued and sheltered. You can see this is getting serious in a short time.
Local jurisdictions must be prepared to manage initial emergency activities for at least the first 96 hours through internal capabilities and/or mutual aid agreements, regardless of the size and scope of the incident. I can guarantee this will not happen.
Firehouses will be damaged along with the apparatus in them. Downed trees and powerlines will make travel impossible for any emergency services left to respond. EMS resources within fire departments will be devoted to firefighting and rescue missions. Communications, if any, will be limited.
Hospitals still able to function will be without power as generator fuel supplies are depleted or unavailable such as natural gas. Medical facilities generally carry two days of supplies. Restocking these will be difficult if not impossible.
In these 22 counties, over 5,000 communication infrastructures will be impacted. 911 in some of these counties will be a total loss. Amature radio operators will play a critical role in communications outside the area.
The big takeaway from this is all local resources will be ineffective and help from other agencies will take weeks in some areas. A lot of federal resources will be tied up in areas around St Louis and Memphis. Start planning today!